When fixed wins
Predictable load profile, electricity is more than 5% of operating costs, you're a single-budget-cycle entity (school, government, regulated industry), or you can't absorb a 50% bill swing. 12-36 month fixed contracts at the right wholesale moment can lock in 1-3¢/kWh below market for the full term.
When indexed/variable wins
Operating in a market with declining wholesale prices, you have load flexibility (can shift production to off-peak hours), or you're a sophisticated buyer with hedge instruments outside the retail contract. Mid-market accounts on indexed rates with a wholesale price floor often beat fixed by 0.5-1.5¢/kWh in soft markets.
The hybrid
Many commercial REPs offer block-and-index — you fix a percentage of your forecasted usage at a known rate and float the rest. Common ratios: 60/40, 70/30, 80/20 fixed/index. Lets you cap downside while still benefiting from price drops on the floating portion.
