The headline number
The ERCOT wholesale average for Q1 2026 closed at $34.20/MWh — down 4.2% year-over-year and the lowest first-quarter number we’ve seen since 2022. That’s the input side of the retail rates you see on marketing pages.
For an average 1,000 kWh Texas home, that translates to roughly $6/month in savings versus the same quarter last year. Not life-changing. But if you’re renewing a contract right now, you’re entering the market at a genuine low.
What changed in the market
Three forces converged this quarter.
- A mild winter kept demand well below forecast, especially in February.
- Natural-gas futures at Henry Hub fell 18% across January and February.
- 1.2 GW of new wind capacity came online in West Texas, just as demand dropped.
Retail electricity providers (REPs) typically hedge 6–12 months forward, so the full savings will reach customers through summer.
What it means for your bill
Here’s how the shift plays out at three common usage levels:
| Usage | Q1 2025 avg bill | Q1 2026 avg bill | Savings |
|---|---|---|---|
| 500 kWh | $72 | $69 | −$3 |
| 1,000 kWh | $138 | $132 | −$6 |
| 2,000 kWh | $265 | $253 | −$12 |
All-electric homes (heat pump plus electric water heating) will see closer to $150/year in savings if they shop now.
What to do right now
- Pull your last 12 months of kWh usage from your current provider’s portal.
- Enter your ZIP and average usage on our comparison tool.
- Sort by total monthly cost — not advertised rate.
- Filter for 12–24 month terms to lock in today’s low wholesale prices.
The cheapest plan at 500 kWh is almost never the cheapest at 2,000 kWh. Shop the full-year cost, not the teaser.